Someone talk me down from the Crazy Tree...

So, currently we see the U.S. economy in something of a tailspin. Yet for some odd reason, oil prices have been dropping. Whether this is due to oil-producing countries trying to help the US Dollar reach a floor (remember, their own currencies are pegged to the dollar... currently...), or due to Joe Sixpack deciding to drive less (the answer to high prices is... high prices...), or some combination of those and other factors, there are some (maybe unintended) consequences.

First, low oil prices and current politics means we don't go after our own resources. In order to make it financially feasible to go get oil in the shelf or in shale, those prices need to be pretty high. Low prices keep us dependent on foreign sources. In all honesty, I think this is an intended consequence.

However, low oil prices also destabilize other countries that depend on those high oil revenues to
keep themselves afloat. I'm thinking offhand of Venezuela, Iran, and Russia - just to name a few at random. Now, if I was in those countries, and wanted to raise the price of oil, I might consider a few options. I might hold wargames with a historical adversary to the US, in the hopes of raising some tensions there. I might invade a neighboring country (which happens to be building a natural gas pipeline). Or... I might either actively assist, or block the actions of others who are trying to prevent, someone on their way to developing nuclear technology and the means of delivering nuclear payloads to places in oil-rich regions. I might shield someone who has said
something about making another country "disappear in a flash of light". (Pay no attention to how one action may lead to the other there...)

Now, let's say I'm a country that doesn't want to disappear in said "flash". I might do some things myself, but my options are rather limited because I'm not that big/powerful a country, and I seem to be scapegoated for all the world's ills.

In desperation, I wind up making a pre-emptive strike against a neighboring country who may be developing nuclear technology. Which has the effect of, not destabilizing, but revealing the lack of stability in the region. Which blows up the price of oil.

And then, let's say that I'm a former stalwart ally of this aforementioned small country not wanting to disappear. Maybe I take this opportunity to jump on the bandwagon and score some political points by blaming the small country for rising oil prices. "Our economy was on its way back! We had the bailouts! They were going to work! Moreover, we were willing to let the political/diplomatic process work. But those cursed (insert name here), they were paranoid, jumped the gun, and NOW look what's happened."

And that's how the U.S. withdraws support from longstanding ally, Israel. And the weird thing about that for me isn't that it's possible. I suppose it's always been possible. The weird thing is how... likely it seems, all of a sudden.

That's one way that it could work out. And frankly, it's the one that's less scary for the U.S. The other possibility (and you know how far out I am on the crazy tree - this is hanging off the top of it), is that the government does something so far removed from the will of the people that it becomes that generation's Intolerable Acts, prompting some yahoos to draft a 2nd Declaration of Independence, and shatter the country. Maybe it becomes an actual shooting war, maybe not. Either way, we take ourselves out of play.

Okay, so there it is. Someone please tell me I'm an idiot, and show me where I'm wrong.

Whose test is it, anyway?

Had another odd dream last night, which is prompting this.

There are a lot of voices out there. It's no wonder the media is sometimes called the "chattering class." Having said that, while there are a number of voices I read and listen to, there are a few voices I trust.

I lost one yesterday. As a fan of "Chowdah" - his fun, snarky writing and his occasional guest stint for Hugh, I'm going to miss him. Not as much as his family, and loved ones, of course, and my thoughts and prayers go out to them.

... but that's not really my odd thought this morning. No, last night, I dreamt I was having a discussion over dinner with Bill Whittle.

Now Bill is, in my humble opinion, no less than the single greatest essayist currently living and working in the United States. I've said it before and I'll say it again - the Silent America essays are... powerful, humbling, hopeful, inspiring. I'm particularly fond of his piece on Magic and magical thinking.

Mr. Whittle and I were at dinner, discussing recent events on the campaign trail - in particular, a certain Vice Presidential candidates rather dire predictions regarding an upcoming "test". And you know what? Joe Biden and I agree on this one. A test is coming.

But it's not necessarily a test of the new President.

Oh, sure, it will be perceived as such, and he'll either rise to the occasion or fail, and there'll be a lot said and written about it. But in a very real sense, the President can only do so much. And the test that I was talking about, the one that I see coming, isn't a test of our political will (although you could interpret it as that) or our military or financial power.

It'll be a test of the American People. One which we will either rise up to or fall and fail. I hope, when it comes, that we're as ready as we can be. I hope that we put our shoulder to that proverbial wheel and push, man, Push! I have the feeling that when it happens, whoever the President is will need our support. I'm optimistic. Whenever we've faced these sorts of challenges in the past, (and we have) we as a people have gotten up, gotten moving, and beat the tar out of it. But I am also reminded of the words of one of those dead white guys we don't seem to hear much about these days, unless he happens to be the source of an award winning HBO bio-miniseries. Luckily enough, this one is. Just for kicks, one of these days, go google the following string. "John Adams Constitution inadequate".

Anyway, the idea I was expounding over an imaginary dream dinner to someone whose work I genuinely admire was to step up. That test is out there, and it's coming. (one calls to mind, ever so briefly, a particular scene in Tombstone). It'll be painful, and tough. And, in a very real sense, good for us. In the song, "America the Beautiful"... aw heckfire. I'll just post that one.

O beautiful for heroes proved
In liberating strife.
Who more than self their country loved
And mercy more than life!
America! America!
May God thy gold refine
Till all success be nobleness
And every gain divine!

You know how gold is refined, right?

A truly fantastic dinner

We just found a new sushi/hibachi place in North Austin, where 183 and 620 cross.  In the same parking lot as the local Home Depot and Walmart, behind the Schlotzsky's and the IHOP, impossible to see from the road, is Momiji Hibachi & Sushi.

They've only been open a few weeks at this point, but holy cow! That was good.

I tried really hard not to go overboard, but by the end of the night, I had...
Edamame.... Miso soup... 2 sushi rolls, and (shame on me) a fried banana. Tempura style. With whipped cream on top.

MSH shared the Edamame, helped with the sushi, but ordered the Seafood Udon.  I haven't had noodles that good since we left Portland, OR.

Queso was the adventurous one. While I ordered a spicy tuna roll and a sweet potato roll, Queso ordered a Spider Roll (soft shell crab), and a Caterpillar roll.  That one bears special mention.  Eel and cucumber inside the roll, and slices of soft avocado formed around the outside so that when it came out, it looked like someone had chopped up a caterpillar and served it on a plate.  The picture really doesn't do it justice.

Meanwhile, the fried banana also bears mention.  Battered and fried tempura-style, it was as though I had encountered some kind of Platonic Ideal Banana. Das Ubernana. Served with whipped cream, a raspberry, and some kind of Deluxe Pocky.  Again, the picture hardly does it justice.


So, we had an appetizer, 4 sushi rolls, MSH's Udon & Lemonade, and two desserts.  Luckily, because they put the sushi on 1/2 price Sun - Thurs (at least during this Grand Opening season they're still in) it was pretty darn reasonable. 

If you're in the area, I highly recommend it.  I know we'll be going back soon.

Good morning!

Greatest breakfast tacos in the world.

Two Princes

Everyone knows the song, right?

Good. If you're following me on twitter, you would have seen me riffing off JC Hutchins' "sponsor my novel" idea.  Now, while I can get behind the whole idea of patronage, having people vote on content strikes me as a bad idea, and I tried to express the thought by threatening to start a meme to force JC to write a Jane Austen-style romance.

(which, incidentally, he told me later he'd love to try.)

And because I couldn't leave it alone (is anyone surprised?) I immediately added lasers, dinosaurs, cyborgs, and a post-apocalyptic setting.  And, dagnabit, all of a sudden it started sounding like a good idea.

It just started flowering in my brain - an idea about a society which had undergone some kind of great shakeup, leaving technology in some places, perceived barbarism in others, forcing a more rigid social structure... it just sort of unfolded like a fractal.

Now, despite threatening JC with having to write it myself, and naming my protagonist Chet Awesomelaser! (yes, the exclamation point is part of the name) it sounds like a project that would be a lot of fun to write. "In a post-apocalyptic future, brave dinosaur-riding, laser-wielding cyborgs seek true love in a rigid social society."

Trouble is, I already have an idea for NaNoWriMo. Something I think is a really good idea. In fact, long time twitter followers have seen me float the idea for its sequel at least once. And when I compare the two of them... my original idea wins. Hands down, just wins. Now, thanks to the discussion earlier, the first story's love story will be deepened a little, twisted a little. (and may benefit from the awesome addition of dinosaurs - it'd work). 

The point is, you have to write the story that speaks to you. And the story of Bit's journey - coming to an understanding of his heritage, the burden it places on him, his attempt to redeem it, and his move into a larger world... it's singing to me. The opening is in my head, clean and crisp as the snow that surround the opening action. The climactic battle at the end is there, and the consequences of saving the day will be heavy, indeed.

So, cyborg Victorian romance/farce (I think I could play this pretty straight... maybe it'd be funnier that way) will have to wait. 

One More Week!!!

Pushing

I've been aware of NaNoWriMo for a while. I purposely did not join last year, reasoning to myself that I didn't want "hype" to overcome "substance" in my writing. End result - I didn't write a book last year.

This year, I've done a lot more writing than I did last year, but I'm nowhere near putting a book together.

And so, when I saw a bunch of the folks I follow on Twitter were signing up, and asking people to sign up and add them as writing buddies, I thought it over. When I saw that one of my heroes endorses NaNoWriMo, I thought it over again.

And if you're reading this at my blogspot address, you can see that I've gone and signed up.

Why do that now when I've been reluctant in the past?

Well, if GutCheck has taught me anything, it's taught me that having someone that I'm accountable to gets results from me. (I'm down over 20 pounds for the year.) And a system is a good thing to have. Moreover, if I can use November to get in the habit of writing, and keep it up, that will go a long way toward me actually getting books written and (maybe) published.

So, keep an eye out. I want to play fair, so I'm starting a new idea, not PRODIGALS, but a new secret project. (Sorry, mom!) I've got the idea. I've got a very rough idea of a three act structure, and a coda.

Now I just need to give it a name...

Because it's the weekend...

Perspective...

Watching the twitter feed swim by, I can't help but ask myself...

This is a presidential election, right? Do I really believe that the person sitting behind the big desk at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. can save us from our problems? From impending economic crash? From polarization and vitriol in the body politic? From reliance on foreign sources of energy?

Nope. And if YOU believe that, you're kidding yourself. No one in the government has a wand they can wave and make our troubles go away. Not even Ben Bernanke and his Magic Money Printing Press can make things better. Now, I do believe that whoever is there can surely screw things up royally for everyone else, but none of our Presidential candidates is exactly Superman. I also believe that whomever is sitting in that chair will need the support of the American people, and I'll be willing to offer my support, no matter who wins.

Meanwhile, the problems of economics, polarization, vitriol & condescension, energy dependence, etc. remain. And this is probably just the beginning. I figure we're in for tough times, folks. And in the words of the founding fathers, we all need to hang together... or...

Odd Thoughts at 7:00 AM

Yeah, nothing like being all hopped up on cold medicine to get a guy blogging. Or having weird thoughts.  Or both. 

So, this morning, I had a second sentence flashing through my head like a neon sign.

You cannot force another person to perception.

Now, let me explain that. I'm not saying that "my blue may not be your blue, who's to say what blue is".  I'm a firm believer in objective reality.  And the color analogy I've heard fails for the simple reason that color can be described in mathematical terms.  "Blue" describes a range of colors around a certain frequency of light.  I can't see that what you're seeing is what I'm seeing so we're both seeing the same thing. Wow that's circular (but it was so much fun to write).  I can describe Beethoven the same way - sounds of various frequencies and tenors played for x amount of time. 

Having said that, the Psychology B.Sc. rears its ugly head at this time.  "Yes, you can describe those kinds of things in that manner, but for someone to "see" or "hear" those things, the signals have to be received and interpreted by the brain.

To which I say... exactly my point.  I believe that there is an objective reality.  But I can't say for certain that anyone's perception of reality actually corresponds to it.  I think a lot of our current polarization in our lives (in so many different arenas) lies in the fact that people are interpreting and processing reality in fundamentally different ways.  And if someone doesn't see the the world the way *I* see it, then that person must be... stupid... evil... inhuman... crazy... other... etc.

Perception is filtered by the brain so that the person makes sense of the inputs they're getting.  It's one of the reasons why I never argue when someone hears something other than what I actually said.  I figure, that's how their brain interpreted the sounds coming out of my mouth. 

So, what to do?  As much as possible, listen to what those you perceive as your opponents are saying.  Ask questions.  It's all right to challenge assumptions, but be willing to have your own challenged, and be able to explain them as well.  Like one of my favorite radio guys says, and I'm paraphrasing horribly, I value clarity over agreement.  Agreement means nothing if we're not clear on what we're agreeing on.  If you can understand the viewpoint of the other person, you will find the things you have in common.  Grab on to those and hold on tight, and build from there. 

Politics, like many things, is an exercise in finding a compromise you can live with.  (That is, something that you can agree with on principle, even if it's not implemented the way you would prefer.)  Sometimes, you may be dealing with people who refuse to work with you on anything - who refuse to give you any ground, but insist you give all of yours.  In those cases, feel free to walk away. 

I was fascinated by this article that talks, among other things, about seeing things from new perspectives. 

So, when I come to a disagreement, the question is twofold - 1. What in the other person's perspective am I missing?  And 2. Can I explain my perspective to this person in a way in which they will understand it?  Because language is the only tool we have to work with.  We can find ways of talking to each other and build understanding.  We can reach out and find areas where we agree.  In most cases, those areas of agreement are much larger than the areas of disagreement.

I guess that's my question here - Am I missing something? And if so... what is it?

Odd thoughts at 4 AM

I woke last night about 4:30 am from a strange dream, with a strange, single thought in my head.

In a war of ideas, coercion is not an option.

It's a pithy little thought, isn't it? Simple, concise, incisive. Now, let's assume that's not just the cough medicine talking (today, I seem to be a dripping snot monster), and parse it out a little. Of course, it's not 100% correct, but it's close enough to be almost a truism. You cannot force another to change his mind.

1. What do I mean by a war of ideas?
Current events being what they are, it's easy to assume that I'm talking about politics, or about what (if anything) government should be doing about the U.S. economy. I could be thinking about the role of religion and morals in our society. And I suppose that in part, all of the above combined to spark the thought. But I believe it applies equally well to small-scale conflicts also. In short, any disagreement is, fundamentally, a war of ideas. Each combatant feels that he is RIGHT, by thunder, and he will MAKE the other person see sweet reason, OR ELSE. How familiar is that?

2. What do I mean by coercion?
Force. You cannot reach into someone else's head and manipulate their brain until they agree. And you can't beat someone over the head with your ideas and expect to get anything approaching within a country mile of a good result. My favorite example of this is something that actually happened to me over fifteen years ago, when I was serving a proselyting mission in the Philippines for my church. I and another missionary went to meet with someone we were teaching, and when we got there, a pair of missionaries from another faith happened to be there also. Now, my boon companion had been expecting just such an... opportunity, and we had prepared our remarks with the possibility in mind. We spent the better part of an hour delivering our message with great gusto, showing how the scriptures proved our point. At the end of which, those poor, unprepared ladies simply could not respond. We had won! And the next time we went to visit the person we were trying to teach, we were asked not to come again. No one had been convinced, no one's mind had been changed, and we had been dis-invited.

Now, there is one way in which force can and is used to win a war of ideas, and that is when you simply do not allow someone else to speak. See this linked video.

In the video, we see students at Columbia University forcing Jim Gilchrist, one of the founders of the Minutemen, off the stage. If you do not allow those with whom you disagree to speak, your idea wins the field by default.

I've found myself wondering what the appropriate response to the situation depicted above might be. Can you get your message across in this kind of situation? If not, what do you do?