So, currently we see the U.S. economy in something of a tailspin. Yet for some odd reason, oil prices have been dropping. Whether this is due to oil-producing countries trying to help the US Dollar reach a floor (remember, their own currencies are pegged to the dollar... currently...), or due to Joe Sixpack deciding to drive less (the answer to high prices is... high prices...), or some combination of those and other factors, there are some (maybe unintended) consequences.
First, low oil prices and current politics means we don't go after our own resources. In order to make it financially feasible to go get oil in the shelf or in shale, those prices need to be pretty high. Low prices keep us dependent on foreign sources. In all honesty, I think this is an intended consequence.
However, low oil prices also destabilize other countries that depend on those high oil revenues to
keep themselves afloat. I'm thinking offhand of Venezuela, Iran, and Russia - just to name a few at random. Now, if I was in those countries, and wanted to raise the price of oil, I might consider a few options. I might hold wargames with a historical adversary to the US, in the hopes of raising some tensions there. I might invade a neighboring country (which happens to be building a natural gas pipeline). Or... I might either actively assist, or block the actions of others who are trying to prevent, someone on their way to developing nuclear technology and the means of delivering nuclear payloads to places in oil-rich regions. I might shield someone who has said
something about making another country "disappear in a flash of light". (Pay no attention to how one action may lead to the other there...)
Now, let's say I'm a country that doesn't want to disappear in said "flash". I might do some things myself, but my options are rather limited because I'm not that big/powerful a country, and I seem to be scapegoated for all the world's ills.
In desperation, I wind up making a pre-emptive strike against a neighboring country who may be developing nuclear technology. Which has the effect of, not destabilizing, but revealing the lack of stability in the region. Which blows up the price of oil.
And then, let's say that I'm a former stalwart ally of this aforementioned small country not wanting to disappear. Maybe I take this opportunity to jump on the bandwagon and score some political points by blaming the small country for rising oil prices. "Our economy was on its way back! We had the bailouts! They were going to work! Moreover, we were willing to let the political/diplomatic process work. But those cursed (insert name here), they were paranoid, jumped the gun, and NOW look what's happened."
And that's how the U.S. withdraws support from longstanding ally, Israel. And the weird thing about that for me isn't that it's possible. I suppose it's always been possible. The weird thing is how... likely it seems, all of a sudden.
That's one way that it could work out. And frankly, it's the one that's less scary for the U.S. The other possibility (and you know how far out I am on the crazy tree - this is hanging off the top of it), is that the government does something so far removed from the will of the people that it becomes that generation's Intolerable Acts, prompting some yahoos to draft a 2nd Declaration of Independence, and shatter the country. Maybe it becomes an actual shooting war, maybe not. Either way, we take ourselves out of play.
Okay, so there it is. Someone please tell me I'm an idiot, and show me where I'm wrong.
First, low oil prices and current politics means we don't go after our own resources. In order to make it financially feasible to go get oil in the shelf or in shale, those prices need to be pretty high. Low prices keep us dependent on foreign sources. In all honesty, I think this is an intended consequence.
However, low oil prices also destabilize other countries that depend on those high oil revenues to
keep themselves afloat. I'm thinking offhand of Venezuela, Iran, and Russia - just to name a few at random. Now, if I was in those countries, and wanted to raise the price of oil, I might consider a few options. I might hold wargames with a historical adversary to the US, in the hopes of raising some tensions there. I might invade a neighboring country (which happens to be building a natural gas pipeline). Or... I might either actively assist, or block the actions of others who are trying to prevent, someone on their way to developing nuclear technology and the means of delivering nuclear payloads to places in oil-rich regions. I might shield someone who has said
something about making another country "disappear in a flash of light". (Pay no attention to how one action may lead to the other there...)
Now, let's say I'm a country that doesn't want to disappear in said "flash". I might do some things myself, but my options are rather limited because I'm not that big/powerful a country, and I seem to be scapegoated for all the world's ills.
In desperation, I wind up making a pre-emptive strike against a neighboring country who may be developing nuclear technology. Which has the effect of, not destabilizing, but revealing the lack of stability in the region. Which blows up the price of oil.
And then, let's say that I'm a former stalwart ally of this aforementioned small country not wanting to disappear. Maybe I take this opportunity to jump on the bandwagon and score some political points by blaming the small country for rising oil prices. "Our economy was on its way back! We had the bailouts! They were going to work! Moreover, we were willing to let the political/diplomatic process work. But those cursed (insert name here), they were paranoid, jumped the gun, and NOW look what's happened."
And that's how the U.S. withdraws support from longstanding ally, Israel. And the weird thing about that for me isn't that it's possible. I suppose it's always been possible. The weird thing is how... likely it seems, all of a sudden.
That's one way that it could work out. And frankly, it's the one that's less scary for the U.S. The other possibility (and you know how far out I am on the crazy tree - this is hanging off the top of it), is that the government does something so far removed from the will of the people that it becomes that generation's Intolerable Acts, prompting some yahoos to draft a 2nd Declaration of Independence, and shatter the country. Maybe it becomes an actual shooting war, maybe not. Either way, we take ourselves out of play.
Okay, so there it is. Someone please tell me I'm an idiot, and show me where I'm wrong.
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